Unter Konjunkturphasen versteht man die verschiedenen wirtschaftlichen Zustände, die eine oder mehrere Volkswirtschaften durchleben. Man spricht auch vom Wirtschaftskreislauf.
Wer sein Geld in Aktien oder andere Geldanlagen investieren möchte, sollte immer die Konjunkturzyklen im Hinterkopf behalten. Viele Anleger investieren in „Hochphasen“ und vergessen, dass nach jeder „Hochphase“ ein Abschwung folgt. Wer dann auf eine Branche setzt, die ausschließlich vom Aufschwung profitiert, wird während einem Abschwung Wertverluste hinnehmen müssen. Um, je nach Branche, möglichst zur günstigsten Zeit zu investieren, werden im folgendem die 4 Konjunkturphasen vorgestellt.
Konjunktur:
1. Der Aufschwung
Kennzeichen:
- zunehmende Nachfrage an Produkten/Dienstleistungen
- steigende Aktienkurse
- Preise steigen
- steigende Investitionen
- steigende Gewinne
2. Die Hochkonjunktur
Kennzeichen:
- Vollauslastung der Produktionskapazitäten
- Höchststand von Preisen und Löhnen
- kaum bis gar keine Gewinnsteigerung
- hohe Leitzinsen
- Aktienkurse auf Höchststand
3. Der Abschwung
Kennzeichen:
- Rückgang bei Nachfrage und Produktion
- steigende Produktionskosten
- Kurzarbeit
- Konjunkturpakete der Regierung
- fallende Aktienkurse
4. Die Rezession
Kennzeichen:
- niedrige Nachfrage
- hohe Arbeitslosigkeit
- Aktienkurse auf Tiefststand
- niedrige Leitzinsen
Nach der Rezession folgt wieder der Aufschwung. Wie lange jede einzelne Phase anhält hängt von vielen Faktoren ab und lässt sich nur sehr schwer vorhersagen. Fest steht nur, dass sich dieser Konjunkturverlauf immer wiederholt.
Pro:
- Branchenspezifisch zu günstigen Kursen kaufen
- vorausschauend investieren
- auf Konjunkturphasen reagieren und Investment anpassen
Contra:
- keine klaren Grenzen zu den Konjunkturphasen
- Phasen können Jahre anhalten
Fazit:
Generell sollte man immer gegen den Strom schwimmen und antizyklisch investieren. Ideale Zeitpunkte sind jeweils der Wendepunkt bei Hochkonjunktur und Rezession. Steht ein Aufschwung bevor, lohnen sich Branchen die z.B. Investitionsgüter herstellen (Maschinenbau). Droht ein Abschwung sind eher defensive Branchen gefragt, wie z.B. die Lebensmittelindustrie.
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